DeltaCast: No Turning Back

Mexican exports are both growing and changing according to the latest trade forecast by Delta Economics. In terms of growing trade: sales to Asian nations in particular are looking exceptionally strong. In November alone, trade with China will expand by +19.7%, month-on-month. There are also remarkable improvements in trade with India +19.9%, Japan +11.8%, South Korea +20.6%, Singapore+17.6% and Hong Kong +16.1%, month on month.

Delta Economics has previously highlighted the changing nature of Mexican trade in the context of “on-shoring”. We see this trend expanding through technology sectors – in particular, imports of “parts” which go into road vehicles and major appliances – which have been steadily improving. Such inflows suggest that Mexico is a hub for manufacturing companies’ eager to move out of Asia to be closer to their North American client base. As a result, the most recent forecast figures suggests that exports in computers will grow by +9.8%, TV and radio transmitters +12.4 and transport vehicles for goods by +10.4% on the previous year. For more information, visit Delta Economics.

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DeltaCast: NAFTA-thought

Mexico’s trade with its NAFTA partners is poised to grow according to the latest forecast by Delta Economics. The USA and Canada combined buy up around 80% of all outbound goods from Mexico and September-October trade with these partners grew by 11.6% (US) and 11.9% (Canada) month-on-month. Whilst trade is expected to slow down in October-November, the year-on-year picture is far more promising: exports to Canada will improve by 14.6% in November and by 8.2% with the US, which is an improvement on 2013.

In particular, the Mexican technology sectors will see impressive gains in November: exports in mechanical appliances and Computers will improve by 17.1% with Canada and by 13.5% with the USA; while sales in electrical machinery will grow year-on-year by 10.3% with Canada and by 4% with the US. Exports of road vehicles to Canada will grow by 21.7% and with the USA by 11%, year-on-year.

Exports continue to drive the Mexican economy but a large part of this may be due to an upswing in the US economy rather than due to improvements in the domestic variables.

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For more information, visit Delta Economics.

 

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Weekly Summary

1,200 Mexican Harvard alumni have returned home, risen quickly in their chosen professions and wield outsized influence.

Cisco to launch next Smart City initiative as part of Guadalajara’s Ciudad Creativa Digital.

Our colleagues from Delta Economics expects Mexico to weather the latest economic storm.

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DeltaCast: Mexican Wave

Delta Economics expects Mexico to weather the latest economic storm. Emerging markets have taken a hit in recent weeks due in part to a combination of lower oil prices and increased volatility in the commodities market. However, the uneasiness is likely to have a relatively modest impact on Mexican trade in the short term. Healthy economic fundamentals and its reliance on the US market, where about 77% of Mexican exports end up, are proving to be a boon to the economy. The tech-related bellwether sectors are forecast to perform especially well; Delta Economics forecasts growth in mechanical appliances and machinery/computers of 9.1% in October, up on the previous year, whilst purchases of road vehicles will grow by 8.4%. Electrical Machinery will grow by a more modest 1.7% in October.

On the other hand, some of the fellow MINT nations may not be as fortunate. Whilst Mexico’s trade is predicted to grow year-on-year by 5.5% this month, Nigeria is expected to contract by -5.2%; Indonesia too may feel the pinch due to its reliance on commodity exports. Emerging markets face choppy waters ahead and only those with diversified trade portfolios will come out stronger on the other end. For more information, visit Delta Economics and @DeltaEconomics.

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Weekly Summary

The Prince of Wales and The Duchess of Cornwall will visit Mexico in November to announce the Year of the UK in Mexico and the Year of Mexico in the UK in 2015 – a programme designed to promote collaboration in the fields of education, science and innovation, culture, and business.

Our colleagues from Delta Economics pointed out that October should be a fruitful month for retailers.

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DeltaCast: Great Escape?

Delta Economics expects October to be a fruitful month for retailers after reports of modest trading in September. Exports in tech-related sectors will see the biggest improvements. In October alone, sales of electrical machinery, equipment and parts will grow by 1.7% month-on-month. Exports in road vehicles will improve by 8.3% and mechanical appliances will see a rise of 9%. Sales in locomotives will see a 7% rise on the previous month.

Whilst the USA and Canada are by far the largest buyers of Mexican goods, those closer to home, Colombia and Brazil, are beginning to increase their dependence on these Mexican bellwether products. In terms of Mexico-Colombia trade this month: mechanical appliances will grow by 8.2%, electrical machinery by 11.1% and road vehicles by 12.2%. As for Brazil: exports in mechanical appliances will improve by 12.2% and road vehicles by 12.3%. In addition, Argentina will increase its purchases of road vehicles by 12.2% in October. All this in spite of the news this week that emerging markets are entering a period of slower growth: yet economies such as Mexico will be relatively sheltered by the volatility in commodity prices because of sound economic fundamentals. For more information, visit Delta Economics.

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Weekly Summary

According to eMarketer estimates, B2C eCommerce will rise 20%, to about $11.43 billion, in Mexico this year with compound annual growth at 17.6% by 2017. Separately, eMarketer reports that Mexico’s Twitter base is expected to reach 7.7 million this year, trailing only Brazil, estimated to reach 12.7 million users.

Oil thefts from illegal pipeline taps cost PEMEX $1.7 billion. Environmental impact not insignificant too.

Mexican exports and “re-shoring” will continue to flourish according to the latest forecast by Delta Economics.

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