DeltaCast: Good Tidings We Bring

According to Delta Economics’ latest forecast, Mexico’s diverse export portfolio will safeguard it against falling oil prices. Compared to other Emerging Markets, Mexico enjoys stronger economic fundamentals and this is likely to aid progress well into the New Year and beyond. Gains for fellow MINT members are likely to be modest in comparison as a result of their heavier reliance on commodities. For example, Turkey’s exports of mechanical appliances and computers will see 2.4% growth year-on-year compared with 6.3% growth for Mexico – only Nigeria will fare better, with growth expected to increase by 10.4%. Mexico’s exports of motor vehicles will see growth hit 6.6%; this is higher than the 4.5% expected from Indonesia, but behind Nigeria, where growth is expected to improve by 9.5% year-on-year in December.

Given the time of year, it’s only fitting to mention the flow of festive goods coming into Mexico: December will see imports of edible meats (which includes Turkeys) increase by 6.3% year-on-year to an estimated value of $350million; this is slightly down from its peak in October of $383million. Imports of other festive goods such as lighting, furniture and fittings increased by 6.6%, whereas the imports of toys, games and other festive articles increased by 3.7% year-on-year in November. But it’s not just imports that will see substantial gains this season, exports too will prosper: in December, exports in edible meats are forecast to go up by 10.4% on the previous year. That’s a lot of roast dinners being consumed over the festive period!

Overall, we estimate Mexican trade will grow by 3.4% in 2014: this is slightly down on previous forecasts but still better compared to other Emerging Markets. We are slightly more optimistic on trade prospects in 2015 and forecast annual trade growth to rise by 5% on 2014. Mexico has enjoyed an impressive growth spurt and in order to continue this upward trend, the government needs to ensure the political situation remains under control. Nevertheless, as we have stated in previous Delta Casts, Mexico is heavily reliant on the North American Market for its trade, so the recent pickup in the US will no doubt prove an unintended boon to the Mexican economy going forward.

On that note, we sign off by saying: we wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

For more information, visit Delta Economics.

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Hasta la próxima!

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